Layered Analysis: A Holistic Approach to Futures Studies

The turn of the 20th century marked a significant shift in futures studies (FS), moving from a predominantly empirical focus on the external world to a more holistic approach that blends both external and internal dimensions of reality. This shift was accompanied by the adoption of layered analysis, which expanded the breadth and depth of FS.

Layered analysis in FS recognises the multi-layered nature of reality. It acknowledges that understanding social reality, with its various dimensions functioning at different levels, requires a synthesis of "inner" and "outer" views. This approach values both judgement and calculation, emphasising the depth of these dimensions rather than mere binary distinctions of truth or falsehood.

In futures studies, the layered approach is organised into several levels of analysis:

1. Pop Futurism: At its most accessible level, this form of engagement is prevalent in popular media. While it captures public imagination, it often lacks depth and theoretical rigour.

2. Problem-Oriented Work: This level focuses on addressing immediate and practical challenges confronting societies and organisations. It grapples with tangible issues, often manifesting in real-world policy and business innovations.

3. Critical Futures Studies: This realm delves into the undercurrents of societal thought processes. Using a critical lens grounded in the humanities, it dissects and critiques the foundational paradigms influencing societal behaviours and decisions, examining deep-seated beliefs and ideologies.

4. Epistemological Futures Work: At the pinnacle, this area intersects with profound philosophical queries, extending into the realms of ontology, macrohistory, and cosmology. It addresses questions about the very nature of existence and knowledge, epitomising the intellectual depth and breadth of futures studies.
   

Within this framework, new methodologies were inspired, with causal layered analysis (CLA) by Sohail Inayatullah being a particularly influential example. CLA integrates various modes of research to examine forecasts, meanings, assumptions, narratives, and actions in both the external material and inner psychological worlds. It accommodates different perspectives of individuals, groups, and cultures, creating transformative spaces for alternative futures analysis and enhancing policy and strategy formulation.

CLA consists of four levels:

1. Litany: This level refers to the official, unquestioned future, often presented in quantitative and measurable terms.

2. Social/Systemic Causes: This level explains and questions the data of the litany from a systemic perspective, including social, technological, economic, environmental, and political factors.

3. Discourse/Worldview: This level delves into the deeper, unconsciously held ideological and discursive assumptions that shape the litany and the system.

4. Myth/Metaphor: This level explores the unconscious emotive dimensions of an issue, shaping the understanding of the world.

A key strength of CLA is its inclusivity of diverse perspectives, particularly at the worldview and myth levels. This approach allows for the exploration of multiple truths and the implications of their interpretation, transforming rigid demands into viable solutions. CLA provides clarity of purpose and practice, altering not just what one thinks, but how one thinks.

As layered methodologies like CLA emerged, futurists proposed additional frameworks. Voros's generalised layered methodology (GLM) combines powerful depth topologies and methods into a single approach for examining interpretative depth. GLM is structured around four major strata:

1. External Artefacts: Representing superficial trends in the objective world.

2. Internal Artefacts: Focusing on specific worldviews and paradigms.

3. Capacities of Consciousness: Emphasising internal cognitive processes.

4. External Conditions of Existence: Concerning environmental, social, and cultural processes.

Voros's approach integrates these strata into a cohesive generalised foresight process framework (GFP), enhancing the understanding of the multi-layered and complex nature of reality.

This paradigm shift in FS, from a purely empirical focus to an integrated approach, accounts for the intricacies of the future in a holistic and meaningful manner. Layered analysis provides a valuable tool for comprehending the complex interplay of factors that shape our world, enabling a more comprehensive exploration of potential futures.